Technology, Innovation & Telecomm

One thing is very clear: The so-called “triple play” is at the top of the telephony providers’ list of ” things to do”.

Not that this is some kind of news-flash, but there is certainly more evidence at the SuperComm show this year that it’s the current hot-ticket than I’ve seen previously.

That’s what they agree on. What’s perhaps more interesting is what they don’t. For example, one provider claims that 20 Mbps will serve the needs of the market for the next 5 years. Another vendor believes that’s a pipe dream and that in fact, consumers would be using 100 Mbps if it was available today. Still others claim that the only true answer to the bandwidth problem is to run fiber directly to the customer premises. The counter-claim is that one can achieve the same results by parking fiber at the curb, within the last 500 feet of the customer.

One thing is clear to me: There will be no single solution in the coming years that addresses all of the projected needs for bandwidth and associated content. It’s in this blend of technologies that a number of opportunities lie. Moreover, the types of services that will become possible once those kinds of data rates are achieved make for yet more opportunities for those creative enough and gutsy enough to pursue ‘em.

Areas and technologies to watch:

1. Beware the impact of service providers who “selectively manage” their bandwidth. That is, if you buy your pipe from provider “x”, watch out for how they manage the traffic for some service that is provided by another service vendor. If the pipe vendor also offers that service, you may not get the performance you expect. Anti-competitive? You tell me.

2. Mobile content. Look for companies to begin working the notion of “portable data” in the sense that they will offer servers (in your home or on the net somewhere) that know your preferences regarding movies, music, email and other content and will make that content available to you regardless of where you are. The implications for the mobile networking folks is obvious.

3. “Narrowcast” video will begin to find new homes once mobile high-speed networks truly become ubiquitous. Keep a close eye on the cellular providers and technologies like WiMAX to see where they’re headed. It’s clear that your data will become location independent. It’ll be a great time to be a podcaster and video-caster.

4. In-home network delivery systems are beginning to mature. Technologies like “media over cable”, power-line networks, phone line networking, etc. are beginning to take their place in the consumer premise.

It’s looking to me like the opportunities in the telecom market are returning. Just watch whats’s happening in the data, video and voice marketplace to get a small taste of the changes that now beginning to occur.