Technology, Innovation & Telecomm

So, SuperComm 2005 has officially come to a close. In a way it’s kind of sad, since this is the last one.

For the last 18 or so years, SuperComm was the collaboration of USTA (U.S. Telecom Association) and TIA (Telecommunications, Industry Association) and held in a few places, including Chicago and Atlanta. The two organizations have decided to go their own ways over differing views of the direction the show should be headed in general.

As a result, there will now be two shows, one put on by TIA and the other hosted by USTA. TIA will continue to use Chicago and will be run at about the same time next year, while USTA will be hosting its new show in Las Vegas. It should be interesting how this shakes out for vendors that are used to showing at SuperComm. It was the biggie of the year for Telecom vendors and now that it’s being split up, one wonders how different equipment and service providers will divide their efforts…if they do. It used to be that vendors would use SuperComm as *the* show for introducing new products and services and just being there was practically an implicit “must do”. Now, folks will need to decide if their budgets will support two shows, or if in fact one or the other is more targeted towards the markets they serve. I don’t know what my company plans to do. It’ll be interesting.

It goes without repeating that the focus of this year’s show was IP everywhere. Specifically how voice, video and data can be efficiently implemented in the telecomm vendors’ space. It’s seen as a battle against the cable MSO’s, but I really wonder:

> It seems that the Telco’s are in an excellent position to capitalize on the wireless infrastructure, as they’ve done so well to date. One kind of wonders why they feel the burning need to have the video side too…

> The cable folk on the other hand have long had the video side of things handled really well and have been continually improving their networks. Why would they feel the desire to take voice business from the Telco market?

It almost seems to me that these guys want to play in the wrong sandbox. Mind you, I’m not against competition in principal and I suppose that it helps to drive technology. But, you have to wonder if the end user really makes out at the end of the day. Either way, it’s good for me and my industry and God knows I’ll try to make the best products for our target as I can.

It was a good show. I enjoyed the classes and I think that it was worthwhile attending. Oddly though, I always feel like I’m in another world during these things, what with all the shiny new tech and glitter and fanfare. In the end, I miss my wife and home and reality begins looking really good after about 3 days. I’ll be happy to be back.

Now it’s time to apply what we learned.

I’ve found it kind of interesting that for the last several years, “Carrier Class Ethernet” has been a tag line for various products. The notion behind that phrase is that traditional LAN-based Ethernet doesn’t have the reliability and quality of service (QoS) that other transports like ATM, SONET, SDH, etc. have always had. All very true.

So, various vendors and industry consortia have been trying to get it right. Standards have emerged that are intended to address the gap and to make it possible for Ethernet to be the true transport for the world’s IP and other traffic. MPLS was developed, for example, to address a few needs. One was the need to make it possible to establish a known route through a network, between various end-points. Another reason was to allow equipment to be able to make switching decisions very rapidly, doing the least amount of frame disassembly and inspection as possible.

All that is to say that Ethernet has had kind of a rough road becoming the primary delivery vehicle throughout a Carrier’s network. SuperComm this year has seemed to focus more heavily than ever on IP-based services (voice, video, data, etc. - see the prior post), with a tacit belief that all this will eventually be carried by good old Ethernet.

Here’s some interesting information (based on various vendor’s opinions):

1. There needs to be better QoS features within Ethernet. Vendors then need to make consistent use of them so that end-to-end quality can be assured.

2. Ethernet is quite complex to set up and run when it lives within the core of a large Metro- or Wide- area network. Don’t presume that it’s somehow vastly easier than current technologies.

3. While ATM is assuredly on the decline, last year more ATM gear shipped than ever before. Vendors have de-emphasized development of ATM gear in favor of Ethernet, but these things take time for adoption, once it starts.

4. To achieve the kinds of bandwidth and bandwidth density that the market feels will be necessary, a lot of the existing SONET/SDH infrastructure may not be adequate. If you believe that a consumer will need 50 Mbps, that seems very true. Thus, carriers are pushing fiber directly to xDSL DSLAMs at Gig-E and 10Gig-E line rates. That’s expensive and time consuming.

5. It’s not clear to me whether Ethernet in the core is really any cheaper for the carriers or the consumers directly. I think that various vendors are in the same predicament. Time will shake a lot of that out, but at the moment it could well be mainly customer perception, rather than reality, that shapes the desire for “All Ethernet, All the Time”.

That’s all the news that’s fit to print and I have to get ready for another day at the show.

One thing is very clear: The so-called “triple play” is at the top of the telephony providers’ list of ” things to do”.

Not that this is some kind of news-flash, but there is certainly more evidence at the SuperComm show this year that it’s the current hot-ticket than I’ve seen previously.

That’s what they agree on. What’s perhaps more interesting is what they don’t. For example, one provider claims that 20 Mbps will serve the needs of the market for the next 5 years. Another vendor believes that’s a pipe dream and that in fact, consumers would be using 100 Mbps if it was available today. Still others claim that the only true answer to the bandwidth problem is to run fiber directly to the customer premises. The counter-claim is that one can achieve the same results by parking fiber at the curb, within the last 500 feet of the customer.

One thing is clear to me: There will be no single solution in the coming years that addresses all of the projected needs for bandwidth and associated content. It’s in this blend of technologies that a number of opportunities lie. Moreover, the types of services that will become possible once those kinds of data rates are achieved make for yet more opportunities for those creative enough and gutsy enough to pursue ‘em.

Areas and technologies to watch:

1. Beware the impact of service providers who “selectively manage” their bandwidth. That is, if you buy your pipe from provider “x”, watch out for how they manage the traffic for some service that is provided by another service vendor. If the pipe vendor also offers that service, you may not get the performance you expect. Anti-competitive? You tell me.

2. Mobile content. Look for companies to begin working the notion of “portable data” in the sense that they will offer servers (in your home or on the net somewhere) that know your preferences regarding movies, music, email and other content and will make that content available to you regardless of where you are. The implications for the mobile networking folks is obvious.

3. “Narrowcast” video will begin to find new homes once mobile high-speed networks truly become ubiquitous. Keep a close eye on the cellular providers and technologies like WiMAX to see where they’re headed. It’s clear that your data will become location independent. It’ll be a great time to be a podcaster and video-caster.

4. In-home network delivery systems are beginning to mature. Technologies like “media over cable”, power-line networks, phone line networking, etc. are beginning to take their place in the consumer premise.

It’s looking to me like the opportunities in the telecom market are returning. Just watch whats’s happening in the data, video and voice marketplace to get a small taste of the changes that now beginning to occur.